If nothing unusual happens, the president's Electoral College victory will surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count, according to Moody's.
Economists at the firm, which is owned by Moody's Corporation but operates independently from rating agency Moody's Investors Services, said they were not ready to forecast voter turnout for 2020. This is where Trump shines brightest, grabbing a whopping 351 electoral votes.
"If the USA economy sticks to our script over the next year, record turnout is vital to a Democratic victory", Moody's said.
"Even allowing for some variability in the accuracy of the economic modeling and underlying assumptions that drive the analysis, four basic conclusions regarding the impact of Mr. Trump's economic proposals can be reached: 1) they will result in a less global US economy; 2) they will lead to larger government deficits and more debt; 3) they will largely benefit very high-income households; and 4) they will result in a weaker USA economy, with fewer jobs and higher unemployment". If applied now, Moody's says the altered models would have called 2016 for Trump.
If turnout next year were historically high, Moody's said, the Democratic candidate could win Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania - states that narrowly voted for Trump in 2016 and which are now experiencing a manufacturing slowdown. A third, which focuses on state-specific unemployment rates, finds Trump would win with 332 electoral votes.
The key for Democrats to overcome Trump's advantages on the economy: generating massive turnout.
"In our post-mortem of the 2016 presidential election model, we determined that unexpected turnout patterns were one of the factors that contributed to the model's first incorrect election prediction", wrote Mark Zandi, Dan White and Bernard Yerbos of Moody's Analytics.
And plenty could still change between now and next November that would move state-level economic models away from Trump, especially in the critical states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. -China trade war has hit America's industrial heartland even as the national economy has stayed more buoyant. Job creation has also slowed to 157,000 per month over the last three months from over 200,000 per month a year ago. Manufacturing has declined in each of the last two months and further deterioration could shift economic models away from Trump. Specifically, he said Luzerne County, in the northeast part of the state, "is the single-most-important county, no kidding, in the entire election".
The "stock market" model relies on fewer economic variables than the pocketbook model and is the least favorable model for Trump, but it still now predicts a victory for the president.
Castro's remarks were in response to a question posed by CNN anchor Anderson Cooper, who asked if the Democrats' calls for impeachment would help or hurt their party. And Trump is about as far from a generic candidate as it is possible to be.
"It could turn out this thing runs on a dynamic you just can't model".