Jobs Bounce Back In June

Jamie Squire  Getty

Jamie Squire Getty

That print was also more than twice the 102,000 new jobs cited by private sector payroll provider ADP - which correctly predicted last month's big employment whiff. As such, we would expect him to strike a deal around the turn of the year, claiming the wave of market euphoria a trade deal would generate, coupled with an environment of lower interest rates, as a personal victory that supports his case for the presidency. Hiring has cooled from an average of 223,000 jobs a month in 2018.

Traders trimmed their bets on Fed rate cuts after the report was released.

Manufacturing employment edged up in June (+17,000), following 4 months of little change. Health care added 35,000 jobs; transportation and housing gained 24,000 job; and construction increased by 21,000 jobs. Nearly all those gains were at the local level.

A really encouraging jobs report that suggests the broad economy is shrugging off the US-China trade uncertainty.

For Todd Leff, CEO of Hand & Stone Massage and Facial Spa, the resilience of the USA job market has provided both an opportunity and a challenge. With more Americans earning steady paychecks, demand for massages and facials has increased, and the company plans to add 60 locations this year and roughly 1,800 jobs.

The Fed has expressed concern about threats to the economy, especially from Trump's trade wars, and about inflation remaining persistently below its two per cent target level.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's semi-annual testimony to the U.S. Congress on the economy next week could shed light on the near-term outlook for monetary policy. Of course, the bad news for Trump is that the secretive Federal Reserve bank is now far less likely to lower interest rates at its meeting later this month. A Fed rate cut, whenever it happens, would be its first in more than a decade.

The slowdown in hiring during May had suggested that employers had grown more cautious in the face of weaker global growth, political showdowns over trade and, perhaps, some difficulty in finding enough qualified workers at the wages companies are willing to pay. However, it is well ahead of all the key inflation measures, so real household disposable income growth is in great shape, which bodes well for consumer spending in the months ahead.

The trend in wage growth has slowed from late previous year when wages were rising at their fastest rate in a decade, pointing to moderate inflation. Home sales are rebounding. But America's manufacturing sector is slowing along with construction spending. The surge in hiring is despite the sector struggling with an inventory bulge - concentrated in the automotive industry - trade tensions, design troubles at planemaker Boeing (BA.N) and slowing global growth.

Overall, employers have been adding jobs faster than new workers are flowing into the economy.

The unemployment rate moved up to 3.7% from 3.6% (it went to 3.67% from 3.62% for those who are sticklers for accuracy), but this reflects a rise in the participation rate - disaffected former workers being attracted back into the labour force, which should be seen as an encouraging story.

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