The National Hurricane Center on Friday said there's a good chance something will develop in the Gulf of Mexico in the next few days.
Right now, a very disorganized cluster of clouds, shower and storms is slowly drifting northwestward over the northern Caribbean. The reasoning behind the policy change is to offer more advanced warning for areas potentially seeing tropical storm or hurricane force winds by a system that is within two days of developing into one.
The National Hurricane Center now has the option to issue advisories on disturbances that are not yet tropical cyclones, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Some models take the storm to the north-central Gulf Coast, others take it to the west near Texas and Louisiana. "At this time, it's a strong uncertainty of where it will form and how it will track". Over the course of tonight and tomorrow morning, this low pressure is expected to move over the Yucatan Peninsula into the south or central part of the Gulf of Mexico. Computer models tasked to tropical systems vary widely until an actual area of low pressure has formed.
It is way too early to say with any confidence exactly where this system will track.
Despite all the recent rain, Orlando is 8.10 inches below the average rainfall total for the year.
At 5 a.m., the disturbance was centered near Latitude 8.4 North, Longitude 54.5 West and was moving toward the west near 23 miles per hour.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect across Trinidad and Tobago, Grenada, and the east coast of Venezuela. Regardless of the exact track, heavy rain appears to be the biggest forecast issue as wind shear will greatly limit the storms ability to gain any significant strength with regard the wind speeds.
The disturbance is moving west at 23 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour.