Oil, USD: Where To Target Oil & EUR/USD After OPEC Supply Cut - Danske

Khalid Al Falih Minister of Energy Industry and Mineral Resources of Saudi Arabia leaves the building of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC at their headquarters in Vienna Austria Wednesday

OPEC agrees to extend production cuts

In November a year ago, OPEC and 11 other non-OPEC producers, including Russian Federation, agreed to cut output by about 1.8 million barrels per day between January 1 and June 30.

"We support the extension of production cuts agreement that was agreed upon previous year for another six months", Mohammed Al Rumhy, Minister of Oil and Gas said.

He indicted that the simulation of the oil market suggests that the nine-month extension could be more feasible, in response to the possible deepening oil production cut.

"We considered various scenarios, from six to nine to 12 months, and we even considered options for a higher cut". Despite the output cut, the Opec kept exports fairly stable in the first half of 2017 as its members sold oil from stocks.

"This is partly because crude had already run higher in anticipation of the deal, partly because some analysts had been hoping for a deeper cut and partly because U.S. shale oil production is surging again, encouraged by crude's advance from its lows under $30 in early 2016", he said. Opec sources have said the Thursday meeting will highlight a need for long-term cooperation with non-Opec producers.

But Nigeria and Libya were exempted from the cuts because their production had suffered disruptions on the back of unrest and militant attacks.

The two sides made a decision to remove about 1.8m barrels per day from the market in the first half of 2017, equal to 2pc of global production.

The oversupply of oil in the market should not persist past the third quarter as inventory numbers are declining and continue moving in a downward trend despite higher US production and high levels of imports, said Patrick Morris, CEO of New York-based HAGIN Investment Management.

OPEC has a self-imposed goal of bringing stocks down from a record high of 3 billion barrels to their five-year average of 2.7 billion.

"I expect we (Nigeria) will get OPEC exemption but one year from now will it be renewed?"

That means USA shale may emerge as the deal's biggest beneficiary, a reality that highlights the pressure on the two massive players, Saudi Arabia and Russian Federation, to extend their output agreement-even though so far it hasn't significantly lifted prices or drained a global oversupply of petroleum.

Brent, the global benchmark for the price of oil, has traded this year in a range between $46.60 per barrel and $56.30 per barrel.

Consultancy Wood Mackenzie added a nine-month extension would make no change to its 2017 price forecast of $55.

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